Astronomers have identified a newly discovered asteroid, 2024 YR4, which has a small but concerning chance of colliding with Earth in seven years. The space rock, estimated to be between 40 and 100 meters wide, was first spotted on Christmas Day by a telescope in Chile specializing in tracking near-Earth objects. Analysis of its trajectory shows that 2024 YR4 is currently moving away from Earth at 38,000 mph but is expected to return dangerously close around Christmas 2032. Scientists estimate a 1.2% chance of impact at 5:25 am on December 22, 2032, the highest probability ever recorded by the European Space Agency (ESA). This risk level has placed the asteroid at the top of ESA’s official asteroid threat list. On the Torino Impact Hazard Scale, 2024 YR4 is rated at level three, the highest rating currently assigned to any known asteroid. The International Asteroid Warning Network and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group have been activated to assess possible mitigation strategies. Further observations are needed to refine the asteroid’s path and determine if it poses a genuine threat to Earth. If a collision occurs, the asteroid could create a crater the size of Manchester, causing significant destruction. While an asteroid of this size typically strikes Earth every few thousand years, the impact would be powerful enough to cause loss of life and widespread damage. Scientists are considering potential deflection strategies to avert catastrophe. One viable approach is the use of a kinetic impactor, a spacecraft designed to crash into the asteroid to alter its trajectory. Experts consider this method more precise and reliable than a nuclear explosion, which remains highly controversial and untested. International treaties prohibit a nuclear detonation in space, and even if allowed, its effectiveness is uncertain. Unlike Hollywood portrayals, a nuclear device would not destroy the asteroid but instead detonate at a distance to alter its course. The kinetic impactor, however, is a proven technology that can be launched relatively quickly and safely. Astronomers worldwide continue to monitor 2024 YR4 closely, gathering more data to refine predictions.
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