ATLANTIC CITY — A surge of late money is coming in from bettors who love the Washington Commanders to win the Super Bowl.
But they also love Saquon Barkley to be the game's MVP.
Both of these things can't happen; the Commanders play Barkley's Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday in the NFC championship game, and one of those teams will go home for the season afterward.
The nation's major sportsbooks are rendering a split verdict from bettors ahead of this weekend's games that will determine who advances to the Super Bowl on Feb. 9 in New Orleans.
While the Chiefs have garnered the most bets over the course of the season to achieve a three-peat as champions, there are new darlings among sports bettors.
FanDuel says the Commanders have been the most popular team to win the Super Bowl since the conclusion of the divisional round last weekend.
Driven by "some sensational playoff performances out of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels," FanDuel says the Commanders have taken 40% of bets over the past week to win the Super Bowl, with the Bills in second place at just short of 30% of the total bets.
At the same time, Barkley has taken on the most Super Bowl MVP bets since Monday with 18% of the FanDuel bet count after his 205-yard rushing performance in the snow against the Los Angeles Rams.
Barkley also is the Super Bowl MVP favorite at BetMGM, with 12.8% of the money wagered. A successful bet on him would pay off at 4-to-1 odds, or $400 on a $100 bet. Josh Allen is at 3-to-1 odds and 8.3% of total money wagered.
And he is the top pick for big game MVP honors at DraftKings as well, with 15% of bets and 20% of all money bet.
The Kansas City Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes has the shortest odds to win Super Bowl MVP; a $100 bet would win $275; he has 6.9% of money wagered on him. The Eagles' Jalen Hurts is 5-to-1 to be the Super Bowl MVP, with 4.8% of the money at BetMGM.
"The sportsbook is hoping for the Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl; the public is all over the underdogs to win, and this matchup would generate great action," said Christian Cipollini, BetMGM's trading manager. "Saquon and Josh Allen staying out of the end zone would be great for us on Sunday, too. And of course, we need the under in both of these semifinal matchups."
The over/under in the Commanders-Eagles game was 47.5 total points scored as of Friday. In the Chiefs-Bills game it was 48.5.
For Sunday's NFC conference championship game, 69% of bets and 55% of the total money wagered at Caesars Sportsbook is on the Commanders, who are getting six points as underdogs.
For the moneyline — which team will win the game, regardless of the point spread — 59% of bets and 70% of the money is on the Commanders at Caesars.Â
Bettors also think Allen and the Bills will finally break through against Mahomes and the Chiefs and win a spot in the Super Bowl. Caesars says 68% of bets and 65% of total money is on the Bills as two-point underdogs.
FanDuel is seeing the same thing, where more than two-thirds of moneyline bets are on Buffalo. Allen is heavily favored to score a touchdown, too, with twice the amount of bets than the runner-up, Kansas City's Travis Kelce.
DraftKings has 64% of bets on the Bills to win outright, with 67% taking them as 2.5-point underdogs. Sixty percent of money and bets are on Washington to win, with 61% of bets and 46% of total money on them as 6-point underdogs.
In terms of overall bets to win the Super Bowl from the entire season, Caesars says the most money is on the Chiefs to win their third championship in a row, with 49% of money wagered on them. The Bills have 26%; the Eagles 19% and the Commanders 6%.