WASHINGTON — President Donald Trump’s new tariffs threaten to  on clothes, mobile phones, furniture and many other products in the coming months, possibly ending the era of cheap goods that Americans enjoyed for about a quarter-century before the pandemic.
In return, White House officials hope the import taxes create more high-paying manufacturing jobs by bringing production back to the United States. It is a politically risky trade-off that could take years to materialize, and it would have to overcome tall barriers, such as the automation of most modern factories.
Even after Trump's  that paused steep new tariffs on about 60 nations for 90 days, average U.S. duties remain much higher than a couple of months ago.
People are also reading…
Trump imposed a 10% tariff on all imports, while goods from China — the United States' third-largest source of imports — face huge 145% duties. There are also 25% taxes on imports of ,Ìý and roughly half of goods from Canada and Mexico.
As a result, the average U.S. tariff has soared from below 3% before Trump's inauguration to roughly 20% now, economists calculate, the highest level since at least the 1940s.
An aerial view of new cars waiting for shipment at a pier for "roll-on/roll-off" ships in Yantai city in eastern China's Shandong province Sunday, March 30, 2025. (Chinatopix via AP)
Cars, iPhones could get more expensive
Should they remain in place, such high duties would reverse decades of globalization that  for American shoppers.
Other trends, including factory automation and technological innovation, particularly in electronics such as TVs, have also brought down prices. But imports help keep prices in check, economists say, partly because of lower labor costs overseas and because increased competition in the U.S. market forces American companies to be more efficient.
“Freer trade has helped moderate inflation over the long term,†said Scott Lincicome, a trade analyst at the libertarian Cato Institute. “If we are entering a more restricted supply side ... then you’re likely to see more expensive stuff," Lincicome said.
Bank of America estimates that the new duties could raise car prices an average of $4,500, even assuming that automakers absorb some of the tariffs’ impact. Such an increase would follow sharp price hikes of the past few years that have left the average price of a new car at a painful $48,000.
Boxes of party supplies imported from China are stacked outside a store in the Toy District of Los Angeles, Wednesday, April 9, 2025. (AP Photo/Jae C. Hong)
Aaron Rubin, CEO of ShipHero LLC, which provides software for merchants to help book shipments and track order deliveries, said his data indicates that retailers are already starting to raise prices to get ahead of the tariffs.
ShipHero's data captures prices on several million products equivalent to about 1% of overall U.S. e-commerce sales. Prices rose 3.9% on Sunday and Monday on a variety of goods compared with the week before Trump announced more tariffs, Rubin said.
If the tariffs hold, Apple is widely expected to raise the prices on iPhones and other popular products because the company’s supply chain is so heavily concentrated in China.
The iPhone 16 Pro Max could see one of the biggest sticker shocks, with its price potentially increasing by 29%. That could raise the starting price from $1,200 to $1,550, according to an estimate from UBS’s chief investment office.
An aerial view of imported iron ore in a port in Yantai city in eastern China's Shandong province Sunday, March 30, 2025. (Chinatopix Via AP) CHINA OUT
A long streak of low prices
After the double-digit inflation of the 1970s was defeated in the early 1980s, inflation still regularly topped 4% yearly until the mid-1990s, when freer trade and globalization began to intensify. From 1995 through 2020, it averaged less than 2.2%.
American shoppers reaped the benefits. Average clothing costs fell 8% from 1995 through 2020, at the same time that overall prices rose 74%, according to government data. Furniture costs were roughly unchanged. The average price of shoes rose just 10%.
Trump administration officials have at times acknowledged the prospect of higher prices from the tariffs.
Foreigners shop for fashion accessories at the Yiwu International Trade Market in Yiwu, eastern China's Zhejiang province, Thursday, April 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
In a speech last month to the Economic Club of New York, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said, “Access to cheap goods is not the essence of the American dream.â€
The administration's willingness to downplay the allure of cheap goods is a risky move, coming after the worst inflation spike in four decades from 2021 to 2023. The jump in prices for essentials such as groceries, gas and housing  on the economy under , despite low unemployment.
According to AP VoteCast, a nationwide survey of voters last November,Ìý said the  was the single most important factor in their vote. Another 43% of Trump voters said it was an important factor, even if it was not the most important consideration.
A vendor of halloween costumes wait for customers at the Yiwu International Trade Market in Yiwu, eastern China's Zhejiang province, Thursday, April 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Some consumers say they are willing to pay more for U.S. goods.
Alisha Sholtis, 38, a nurse-turned-social media influencer, used to shop heavily on China-founded fast-fashion e-commerce site Temu, scooping up polyester tops and dresses for $5 to $25 and grabbing cheap electronics and toys. Products from Temu will now face huge new tariffs.
Yet Sholtis, who lives in Davison, Michigan, said she got tired of the clothes that fell apart after one washing and the toys that broke easily. She now shops elsewhere.
She applauds Trump’s goal of bringing some manufacturing back to the U.S. because she feels the move will lead to better quality. And she said she wouldn’t mind paying higher prices as a result.
“I would buy less of more higher quality things,†she said.
U.S. flag themed wearables are displayed at the Yiwu International Trade Market in Yiwu, eastern China's Zhejiang province, Thursday, April 10, 2025. (AP Photo/Ng Han Guan)
Will jobs return?
Kevin Hassett, Trump’s top economic adviser, acknowledged Sunday that “there might be some increase in prices†from the president’s tariffs.
But he noted that there have been trade-offs from globalization: “We got the cheap goods at the grocery store, but then we had fewer jobs,†he said on ABC's “This Week.â€
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick predicted tariffs would force a manufacturing shift.
“The army of millions and millions of human beings screwing in little screws to make iPhones, that kind of thing is going to come to America,†Lutnick said during an April 6 .
Analysts doubt that Apple could build phones in the U.S.
“The concept of making iPhones in the U.S. is a non-starter,†asserted Wedbush Securities analyst Dan Ives, reflecting a widely held view in the investment community that tracks Apple’s every move. He estimated that the current $1,000 price tag for an iPhone made in China or India would soar to more than $3,000 if production shifted to the U.S.
An aerial view of Xiasha Container Terminal on a canal in Hangzhou in east China's Zhejiang province Sunday, April 6, 2025. (Chinatopix Via AP)
Shannon Williams, CEO of the Home Furnishings Association, a furniture trade group, said it can take years to set up a factory in the U.S. It's not clear if there would be enough workers either, given the low U.S. unemployment rate of 4.2%.
The most innovative furniture makers in the U.S. are using technology to reduce their labor needs. “They're going through it and completely automating their assembly line,†she said.
China exported 1.2 billion pairs of shoes to the United States last year, according to the Footwear Distributors and Retailers of America. About 26% of U.S. clothes were imported from China in 2023,Ìý, and about 80% of U.S. toys.
Williams said furniture prices likely won't rise much anytime soon because most companies now import from other Asian nations, such as Vietnam or Malaysia.
Yet “globalization has definitely helped bring costs down,†she said. “There's a reason you could buy a $699 sofa in 1985 and buy a $699 sofa today."
___
D'Innocenzio reported from New York. Associated Press writers Michael Liedtke in San Francisco and Linley Sanders in Washington also contributed to this report.
As tariffs loom and global currency values fluctuate, goods from these top US trade partners may shift in price
As tariffs loom and global currency values fluctuate, goods from these top US trade partners may shift in price
Since his reelection, President Trump has followed through on campaign promises to impose tariffs on America's biggest trading partners—Canada, China, and Mexico—in an attempt to further his terms on trade, borders, and drug trafficking crackdowns. But the tariff threats, reversals, deals, and reprisals are leaving consumers, businesses, and economists experiencing whiplash about what's going to happen next.
Tariffs are import taxes on foreign goods, but it's not foreign companies who pay them. When the United States slaps a tariff on Chinese steel, . Fees are collected by Customs and Border Protection agents at ports of entry, and into Treasury coffers. When tariffs rise, those companies face a choice:Â If they can't find domestic sources for necessary goods, they must eat the cost and watch their profits shrink, or pass the rising fee on to consumers through higher prices.
While the rationale behind Trump's approach to tariffs may be to increase revenue, balance trade, and assert dominance over rival countries, those outcomes are far from certain. Tariffs not only run the risk of raising prices, but in some cases, they also up the ante for U.S. exports by creating a game of brinkmanship. For example, when in early February, Beijing swiftly responded by targeting American energy with 15% tariffs on coal and natural gas, and 10% duties on crude oil and farm equipment.
Because China exports more to the U.S. than it imports, it is limited in its ability to match Trump's tariffs one for one. So this time China has added additional measures to strike back and cause other forms of financial and business hardship. China's Ministry of Commerce also launched an antitrust probe into Google and blacklisted two American firms—fashion powerhouse PVH Group, which owns global clothing brands Tommy Hilfiger and Calvin Klein, along with biotech firm Illumina. China also restricted exports of critical minerals like tungsten and tellurium, essential ingredients for everything from smartphones to electric vehicles.
Meanwhile, on Canada and Mexico after securing border security commitments. Canada pledged $1.3 billion Canadian dollars (or $915 million USD) for border investment and appointed a new so-called fentanyl czar, while Mexico agreed to deploy 10,000 National Guard troops along its northern border in an attempt to curb drug trafficking and crime.
For consumers, the impact could soon appear in everyday purchases. Those surprisingly affordable flat-screen TVs might see price hikes as tariffs bite into foreign brands' margins. due to the industry's reliance on Chinese raw materials. could get pricier.
Trade tensions , which is good news for American tourists but potentially devastating for U.S. exporters trying to compete in global markets.
It's a high-stakes game of economic chicken where every move ripples through global supply chains—and in some cases, consumers pay the biggest price. Whether this aggressive approach leads to new trade, border, and drug crackdown deals—or simply deeper economic and political tensions—remains to be seen, but one thing is certain: Consumers and businesses on both sides of the Pacific are bracing for impact.
used Census data to explore how the price of top imports from the U.S.'s leading trade partners may shift due to tariffs and currency values. The top imports were calculated by ranking both the total import value in U.S. dollars, and the share of total U.S. imports of that commodity from the country as of 2023.
Canada
Critical supplies like fertilizer and construction materials hang in the balance of any potential trade dispute between the U.S. and Canada. Our northern neighbor's dominance in rapeseed oil—which contributes to animal feed and biodiesel, among other uses—and fertilizer exports to the U.S. (98% and 86%, respectively) means any disruption could increase both American farmers' production costs and cut into food manufacturers' bottom lines. That potentially means higher prices at the grocery store and the gas pump. It could also for households that rely on heating oil, up to 30 cents per gallon.
Workers in U.S. if Canadian wood products and aluminum become harder to source. Consumers, already wrestling with sky-high prices and persistent inflation, could see everything from home renovation costs to certain Canadian-assembled vehicles get pricier, .
Because Canada's economy largely relies on the export of commodities, its currency is prone to fluctuations, particularly during times of volatility. The U.S. and Canadian dollars have a close relationship; aluminum and steel, two major exports from Canada to the U.S. may be impacted amid ongoing tariff uncertainty that began in early 2025.
But the possibility of tariffs remains, which could bring business activity down and and weaken the currency by making it less attractive to foreign investors.
China
China's grip on U.S. tech supply chains runs deep, for everything from smartphones ($54.6 billion in import value) and computers ($39 billion in import value) to gaming consoles (where China supplies 80% of U.S. imports).
Higher component costs and supply disruptions could force U.S. tech companies to accept lower profit margins and cut costs, including wages and jobs, . This has a profound effect on American software developers, engineers, and manufacturing workers who designed and built these devices, .
For consumers already struggling with high prices, trade tensions with China could mean significantly higher prices on like phones, laptops, and gaming systems, while the increased costs of electric vehicle batteries and automotive components could push new car prices even higher.
Even though China was the first country that Trump imposed new tariffs on in his second term, , with its fixed exchange rate, is than when he took office. China's targeted but limited reaction leaves open the possibility of a bigger trade deal to avoid a full-throated trade war.
Mexico
U.S. and Mexican auto industries are deeply intertwined through $32.8 billion in vehicle trade and complex supply chains that account for 75% of U.S. auto imports. A disruption in trade between the two countries , from assembly line staff to dealership employees. It could also .
American shoppers already dealing with higher grocery bills could see even steeper prices for everyday items like (where Mexico supplies 83% of imports), making weekly shopping trips more expensive for already stretched household budgets. Various tariff threats have sent the already volatile peso swinging this year, from . If the threatened 25% tariffs do go into effect, experts say the peso could fall even further, and Mexico's economy could slide into recession.
Story editing by Alizah Salario. Additional editing by Elisa Huang. Copy editing by Tim Bruns.
originally appeared on and was produced and distributed in partnership with Stacker Studio.
