WASHINGTON — Americans’ trust in President Donald Trump to bolster the U.S. economy appears to be faltering, with a new poll showing that many people fear the country is being steered into a recession and that the president’s broad and haphazardly enforced tariffs will cause prices to rise.
Javid Moghaddasnia, director of customer engagement, discusses American Giant clothing while being interviewed at the company's showroom April 17 in San Francisco. The company hopes tariffs boost its American-made clothing.
Roughly half of U.S. adults say Trump’s trade policies will increase prices “a lot†and another 3 in 10 think prices could go up “somewhat,†according to the poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research.
About half of Americans are “extremely†or “very†concerned about the possibility of the U.S. economy going into a recession in the next few months.
While skepticism about tariffs is increasing modestly, that doesn’t mean the public is automatically rejecting Trump or his approach to trade. However, the wariness could cause problems for a president who promised voters he could quickly fix inflation.
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Three months into his second term, Trump’s handling of the economy and tariffs is showing up as a potential weakness. About 4 in 10 Americans approve of the way the Republican president is handling the economy and trade negotiations. That’s roughly in line with an AP-NORC poll conducted in March.
Matthew Wood, 41, said he’s waiting to see how the tariffs play out, but he’s feeling anxious.
President Donald Trump announces tariffs April 2 in the Rose Garden at the White House in Washington.
“I’m not a huge fan of it, especially considering China and going back and forth with adjustments on both ends,†said Wood, who lives in West Liberty, Kentucky, and is unemployed. “Personally, it hasn’t affected me as of yet. But, generally, I don’t know how this is going to come to an end, especially with the big countries involved.â€
Still, Wood said he changed his registration from Republican to independent, having been turned off by Trump’s attitude and deference to billionaire adviser Elon Musk. Wood voted for Trump last year and said he’s willing to give the president until the end of the year to deliver positive results on tariffs.
About half of U.S. adults, 52%, are against imposing tariffs on all goods brought into the U.S. from other countries. That’s up slightly from January, when a poll found that 46% were against tariffs. Driving that small shift largely appears to be adults under age 30 who didn’t previously have an opinion on tariffs.
Trump supporter Janice Manis, 63, said her only criticism of Trump on tariffs is that he put in a partial 90-day pause for trade negotiations with other countries.
“Actually, I think he shouldn’t have suspended it,†said Manis, a retired sheriff’s deputy from Del Rio, Texas. “Because now China is trying to manipulate all of these other countries to go against us, whereas if he would have left all the tariffs in play then these countries would be hit hard. But, oh, well, things happen.â€
Not quite 100 days into Trump’s second term in the White House, people around the country are bracing for possible disruptions in how they spend, work and live. The U.S. economy remains solid for the moment with moderating inflation and a healthy 4.2% unemployment rate, yet measures such as consumer confidence have dropped sharply.
The suit charges that President Trump's tariff orders violate the separation of powers laid out in the Constitution. (Scripps News)
Trump has used executive actions to remold the global economy. He’s imposed hundreds of billions of dollars a year in new import taxes — albeit partially suspending some of them — launching a full-scale trade war against China and pledging to wrap up deals with dozen of other countries that are temporarily facing tariffs of 10%. Financial markets are swinging with every twist and turn from Trump’s tariff pronouncements.
Many Americans are not convinced this is the right approach. About 6 in 10 say Trump has “gone too far†when it comes to imposing new tariffs, according to the poll.
Stocks are down this year, while interest charges on U.S. government bonds have climbed in ways that could make it more costly to repay mortgages, auto loans and student debt. CEOs are scrapping their earnings guidance for investors and seeking exemptions from Trump’s tariffs, which hit allies such as Canada and even penguin-inhabited islands.
Trump seemed to recognize the drag from tariffs as he highlighted this week the possibility of a deal with China. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said in a closed-door speech that the situation with China is not “sustainable.â€
About 6 in 10 U.S. adults are “extremely†or “very†concerned about the cost of groceries in the next few months, while about half are highly concerned about the cost of big purchases, such as a car, cellphone or appliance. Less than half are highly concerned about their ability to purchase the goods they want — a sign of the economy’s resilience so far.
Retirement savings are a source of anxiety — about 4 in 10 Americans say their retirement savings are a “major source†of stress in their lives. But fewer — only about 2 in 10 — identify the stock market as a major source of anxiety.
“This whole tariff war is just a losing situation not only for the American people but everybody worldwide,†said Nicole Jones, 32. “It’s revenge — and everybody’s losing on it.â€
Milka chocolate bars from Germany are displayed for sale April 4 at Economy Candy in New York.
The Englewood, Florida, resident voted last year for then-Vice President Kamala Harris, who replaced the incumbent president, Joe Biden, as the Democratic nominee. Jones hadn’t given much thought to tariffs until recently, and now, as an occupational therapy student, she also worries about losing her financial aid and facing high amounts of educational debt.
“Things are more expensive for us,†she said.
And most Americans still think the national economy is in a weak state.
The difference is that Republicans — who largely thought the economy was in bad shape when Biden was president — now feel more optimistic. But Democrats have become much more bleak about the country’s financial future.
“It wasn’t all sunshine and rainbows, but we were doing fine,†Jones, a Democratic voter, said about the economy before Trump’s policies went into effect.
Inflation vs. Wages: Where Salaries Haven't Kept Pace With Rising Costs
Inflation vs. Wages: Where Salaries Haven't Kept Pace With Rising Costs
Photo Credit: Kmpzzz / Shutterstock
Over the past few years, rising inflation has put increasing financial pressure on American households, particularly those in the middle class. While wages have grown in nominal terms, many workers feel they are falling behind as the cost of essentials — housing, groceries, and everyday expenses — continues to climb. Public frustration over inflation remains high, with surveys consistently showing that Americans view the rising cost of living as one of the most pressing economic concerns.
This analysis from , a company that provides advice on credit card rewards programs and other financial products, examines how inflation-adjusted wages have changed across U.S. metropolitan areas between December 2020 and December 2024, using the most recent data available. December 2020 was chosen as the starting point because it marks the period just before inflation began rising rapidly in 2021. By comparing wage growth to the increasing costs of goods and services, the findings reveal where worker pay has failed to keep pace, highlighting the cities where residents have lost the most purchasing power.
Here are some of the key takeaways from the analysis:
- National Purchasing Power Decline:Â Real wages declined 3.2% between December 2020 and December 2024 as prices (+21.2%) outpaced nominal wages (+17.3%).
- Regional Differences:Â Baltimore (-14.0%), Dallas (-12.1%), and Boston (-11.2%) experienced the steepest declines in real wages.
- Positive Outliers:Â Tampa, Florida (+3.5%) and Houston (+6.3%) were the only major metros where wage growth outpaced inflation.
- Public Sentiment:Â 71% of Americans say it is harder to get by now than a decade ago, citing rising housing and grocery costs.
Trends in Real Wage Growth and Cost of Living
At the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, real wages surged, driven in part by  as widespread labor shortages gave employees greater bargaining power. Industries such as hospitality, retail, and logistics saw particularly strong wage growth as employers scrambled to fill positions. However, as the economy rebounded and inflation accelerated sharply in early 2021, real earnings began a downward trajectory, with wages failing to keep pace with rising costs.
Between December 2020 and December 2024, nominal wages increased by 17.3% nationwide, but prices rose by a cumulative 21.2%, leading to a 3.2% decline in real earnings over that period. While inflation-adjusted wages remain slightly higher than they were at the start of the pandemic, the rapid erosion of purchasing power — particularly for essentials — has made this regression especially difficult for Americans to absorb. The experience of falling behind after a period of strong gains has fueled frustration, keeping inflation top of mind for workers and their families.
Cumulative Inflation by Metro From Q4 2020 to Q4 2024
While inflation surged nationwide, some of the sharpest cost increases have hit America’s fastest-growing metros.
Housing costs soared in Miami (+39.5%) and Tampa, Florida (+39.3%), nearly doubling the national rate. Phoenix (+37.0%) and Atlanta (+33.9%) also recorded major increases in rent and home prices. Grocery prices rose fastest in Houston (+27.8%), Detroit (+26.2%), and Dallas (+25.9%), putting further strain on household budgets for everyday items.
In total, Miami (+27.9%), Tampa (+26.4%), and Atlanta (+26.1%) saw the greatest overall cumulative inflation. Meanwhile, some historically expensive cities — such as San Francisco (+14.9%) and Washington, D.C. (+17.9%) — recorded relatively more moderate price growth. Notably, the hardest-hit metros were those that have attracted waves of new residents in recent years due to their traditionally lower costs of living. As demand surged, so did prices, erasing much of their historical affordability advantage.
Wage Growth vs. Price Growth in America's Largest Cities
The result is that over the past 4 years — between December 2020 and December 2024 — inflation has outpaced wage growth in nearly every major metro in the U.S., eroding prior financial gains for millions of workers. Only 2 of the country’s largest metro areas — Tampa (+3.5%) and Houston (+6.3%) — saw real wage gains after adjusting for inflation. In every other major city, wage growth failed to keep up with the rising cost of living.
The gap between price growth and wage growth has been staggering in some metros. Baltimore (-14.0%), Dallas (-12.1%), and Boston (-11.2%) saw the steepest declines in real earnings. Even in fast-growing cities like Phoenix, where wage growth was among the highest in the country, inflation still eroded those gains, resulting in a 3.0% drop in cost-of-living-adjusted pay.
While some metros have seen strong wage increases, few workers have truly gained ground after accounting for the relentless rise in costs.
How Do Americans Feel About the Current Economic Conditions?
Given the staggering rise in costs that have outpaced wage growth in nearly all of America’s largest cities, it’s not surprising that many Americans feel worse off now than they were a decade ago. According to the Upgraded Points February 2025 Financial Pulse Survey, 71% of respondents said it is harder for the average family to get by now than 10 years ago, with 42.5% believing it is "much harder." Only 8% felt that life has become easier.
When asked about the biggest financial challenge facing families today, 41.8% pointed to rising costs, making it the dominant concern. Another 27.3% cited insufficient wages, highlighting the gap between paychecks and inflation. Unnecessary spending (16.7%) and job instability (14.0%) were seen as lesser but still notable struggles.
Which Expense Places the Greatest Financial Strain on Middle-Class Households?
When asked which financial burden weighs heaviest, Americans overwhelmingly pointed to housing (25.6%), reflecting skyrocketing rents and home prices, especially in historically cheaper but fast-growing metros like Miami, Tampa, Phoenix, and Atlanta. The cost of groceries (15.6%) was the next biggest concern, underscoring how rising food prices — up 27.8% in cities like Houston — are squeezing household budgets.
Healthcare and taxes were also cited as major stressors for 13.2% and 10.2% of respondents, respectively. Meanwhile, expenses like debt payments, childcare, and education weigh heavily on some families but don’t affect all households in the same way as housing and food.
For a detailed breakdown of wage growth and price increases in 21 major U.S. metropolitan areas, see the original report: .
Methodology
Image Credit: Kmpzzz / Shutterstock
This analysis examines the gap between wage growth and rising costs by comparing inflation-adjusted earnings across U.S. metropolitan areas. Data sources include the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), specifically the Ìý²¹²Ô»å  programs, as well as the Upgraded Points February 2025 Financial Pulse Survey, a proprietary survey of U.S. adults.
To assess where wages have failed to keep pace with inflation, researchers calculated the percentage change in real (inflation-adjusted) earnings from December 2020 to December 2024. December 2020 was chosen as the starting point because it marks the period just before inflation began accelerating rapidly in 2021. However, because BLS only reports inflation data on odd months for certain metros, November 2020 and November 2024 figures were used for those locations instead.
The study utilized the following CPI measures:
- Overall price growth is based on the "All Items" CPI
- Housing price growth is based on the "Shelter" CPI
- Grocery price growth is based on the "Food at Home" CPI
Only metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) with complete and consistent data across both BLS surveys were included in the analysis.
For complete results, see on Upgraded Points.
