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BARABOO, Wis. — The Sauk County Courthouse Square was littered with popcorn and popsicle sticks as residents flocked to watch the annual Baraboo homecoming parade.

Sitting with her mother and two little brothers at a picnic table, the looming presidential election was the last thing on Kaitlynne Roy’s mind. The lifelong Baraboo, Wisconsin, resident said she scarcely, if ever, thinks or talks about national politics.

In 2020, Roy, 24, voted for Joe Biden, her first and only time visiting the polls. But this year, she’s unsure whether she will actually cast a ballot come November.

“I want to vote for the person who is going to invest in bettering things, instead of trying to quiet the voices of the people to get power,� she said.

But she doesn’t yet know whether that person is Vice President Kamala Harris or former president Donald Trump.

Roy’s home county has voted in line with the country in every presidential election since 2008 — voting twice for Barack Obama, for Trump in 2016 and for Biden in 2020.

This partisan flip-flopping has gone hand-in-hand with modest population growth, high turnout among registered voters and shrinking margins of victory in Sauk County.

In 2012, Obama won the county by nearly 6,000 votes; in 2016, Trump won by just 109 votes; in 2020, Biden won by 614 votes. Neither party has garnered more than 51% of votes in Sauk County since Obama.

The county did not successfully predict the 2022 Senate race — Republican incumbent Ron Johnson won statewide by 1 percentage point, while Sauk County voted for Democrat Mandela Barnes by just over 1 percentage point.

But Barnes took Sauk County in 2022 by only 329 votes — half of Biden’s win margin in 2020 — indicating further shrinking victory margins.

Home to nearly 66,000 people — almost 95% of whom are white — Sauk County is populated with about 1,400 farms. The expansion of Highway 12 from Madison to a four lane roadway has helped Sauk City and Prairie du Sac become de facto suburbs of Dane County. Tourism there is a nearly $2 billion industry, thanks in large part to the village of Lake Delton, home to many of the attractions and waterparks of the Wisconsin Dells.

“Sauk County has a mix of being an outer-suburban commuting area for the greater Madison area and real country western Wisconsin,� said UW-Milwaukee political science professor Mordecai Lee. “It gives it that nice mix that is likely contributing to why it’s been a bellwether county.�

Partisan issues for Sauk County voters

The Sauk County GOP, which has over 150 active members, hosts weekly coffee chats at their headquarters, in a Reedsburg strip-mall, in a storefront that used to house a Mexican restaurant.

Sitting at a coffee table in front of a life-sized painting of the assassination attempt against the former president, Jerry Helmer, Chairman of the Republican Party of Sauk County and candidate for 40th Assembly District, said conservatives there are driven generally by a belief in smaller government and less regulation. Their main issues are usually the economy — getting prices down — and immigration.

Dan Forcier, a former federal police officer and lifelong Republican, is all about closing the border this election. Immigration is a mobilizing issue for Sauk County Republicans, he said, who believe the issue will have effects even locally.

“That wall needs to be finished, they need to be shipped back,� he said.

Despite immigration being a hot-button issue for county voters, in August, after emotionally charged remarks from residents and supervisors, the Sauk County Board indefinitely delayed a vote on the relocation of refugees into the county.

More locally, another top issue for GOP voters is protecting rural interests against growing urban hubs, Helmer said.

“You look in Madison, and there’s an apartment building going up every day,� he said. “But if you look in Reedsburg or Baraboo, there’s nothing. And it’s a big issue. You have a workforce that can’t find places to live and can’t afford to buy a house.�

Joscelyn Jackson, a lifelong Sauk County resident and Democratic voter, is motivated chiefly by women’s issues — their health, freedoms and “access to basic human rights.� She is outspoken about her belief in reproductive rights because several women in her family have experienced fertility struggles.

“I don’t see why politics are in [this] but they are, and so I feel that I need to use my voice to stand up for me, my sisters, my friends, my aunts,� she said.

Jackson’s fiance has two children from a previous marriage, making her the “bonus mom� to an 11-year-old girl.

“I want her to have every right that I’ve had growing up — every choice, every opportunity to know that she can do what she wants to do,� Jackson said.

In downtown Baraboo, Kelly Gebhard, who manages “A Sense of Adventure,� a Fair Trade gift shop, said her livelihood is at stake this November. Gebhard’s shop is among the more than 1,500 small businesses that account for more than 80 percent of establishments in the county.

The lifelong Democrat said she is concerned, as the manager of a small business that relies on goods from over 30 countries, about Trump’s plan to levy substantial tariffs on imports.

“If the prices for our product go up, then we have to raise our prices to our consumers, and then we don’t get business,� Gebhard said. “A president is supposed to work for his people and for his country, not for himself, and his friends, and his bank accounts.�

Independents find misgivings with Trump

In her hometown of Denzer, a hamlet south of North Freedom, Charlotte Hueslemann said she considers herself an independent voter. She voted for George H.W. Bush in the 1980s and would have voted for John McCain in 2008 if not for his choice of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin for Vice President. She has never voted for Trump.

“I was pretty open minded until Trump. And now I’m not open minded any more. I can’t deal with him. I want nothing to do with him,� said Huelsemann, 71, who works part-time as a cashier at Menard’s in Baraboo. “I try to do my research and try to do my homework. I tell my kids, I tell my grandkids, to do the same thing.�

Misgivings with the former president’s personality were enough to take Brad Horner from a Trump supporter to a local Democratic volunteer.

Horner, 70, a former All American swimmer at UW-Madison, has lived on Lake Redstone in northwestern Sauk County for the past 17 years and is now retired from the information technology industry.

His voting record over the past 45 years includes casting ballots for Libertarian Ed Clark in 1980, for Ross Perot, who in 1992 ran as an independent and for Obama in 2008 and 2012. In 2016, he voted for Trump, who he said was a “breath of fresh air� and who he thought could help solve the border crisis.

But as Trump’s presidency wore on, Horner became turned off by the New York businessman. In 2020, he voted for Biden instead of Trump.

“His character came out,� Horner said, while seated on his deck. “He’s a divider. He’s out for himself only. The disrespect and name calling. The president should be a role model for all of us in how to get along and behave and navigate politics to get things done. He doesn’t do any of that.�

Now, he is helping to coordinate volunteers with the Sauk County Democratic Party. He has seen all sorts of voters, including “card carrying Republicans� and members of the NRA, come into the party headquarters to support Harris.

But he still expects the race to be close among Sauk County voters.

“I’m hoping there’s still a lot of people who have an open mind that maybe have been Republican leaning and will say, ‘I can’t back this guy. I might agree with him on most issues but his character is keeping me from voting for him,’� Horner said.

Ground game and party organizing

The Democratic Party of Sauk County saw an explosion in engagement from previously nonpartisan voters like Horner when Harris became the party’s nominee, according to chair Susan Knower.

Membership meetings that in the past had drawn around 20 people swelled to more than 60 this year; the party had to hire a second volunteer coordinator. A recent women’s health event sponsored by the Sauk County party drew around 70 people, Knower said.

“We have people coming out of the woodwork wanting to volunteer,� Knower said, sitting in the party’s headquarters, in a strip mall storefront between a used car lot and a Jiu Jitsu studio. “People were just so energized and enthusiastic. It’s just night and day.�

A race for the new state Senate seat in the county, created when maps were redrawn, is also energizing voters on both sides, with Democrat Sarah Keyeski taking on Republican Joan Ballweg. The new 14th District includes parts of Dane, Adams and Columbia counties and all of Richland and Sauk counties.

“It is a purple county but I think it's trending more blue as more people move in this way,� said Knower. “We are more conscious now about rural voters. And rural does not mean farm only. So I think we’re talking more and more to rural voters and their values. It’s trending blue, but we have more work to do. We’re not taking anything for granted.�

As for the county GOP, Helmer said there are over 150 active members but no organized door-knocking initiatives, although groups of volunteers often go canvassing spontaneously. The party’s primary operation has been the distribution of thousands of yard signs.

Helmer’s biggest surprise while door-knocking has been how many people say they still don’t know who they are going to vote for. A lot of undecided voters he encounters distrust and reject “the mainstream media.� When he knocks on doors, voters often simply ask for information. He said many people come through the GOP headquarters who have never voted.

“I think a lot of people don’t normally pay a lot of attention to what’s going on,� he said.

‘A friendlier place than most of America’

In a deeply purple county where all but two municipalities have populations under 10,000 and 70 percent of businesses have fewer than 10 employees, talking about politics can be “taboo,� according to Joscelyn Jackson, who has lived in Sauk County her whole life.

As a child, she never knew where her parents stood, who they were voting for or even who was running.

She began doing her own research as a teenager and realized that her beliefs aligned with Democratic values. She has always voted blue, and she makes it a point to stay engaged with and actively discuss politics in Baraboo.

But she said the culture of silence surrounding politics there makes it hard to mobilize uninformed, undecided and uninterested voters — like her fiance, who has never voted.

“They’re either going to vote but not talk about it, or they’re going to dismiss politics altogether because they feel that their voice doesn’t matter because they’re just this small-town person,� she said. “It’s hard to convince people that their vote does matter.�

Even those who are firmly partisan are hesitant to publicly proclaim their beliefs for fear of retribution, Jackson said.

“It’s like, ‘What will my neighbor think of me? What will my pastor think? What will my family think?'� she said.

According to Lee, this quieting of political discourse out of neighborly respect is indicative of a broader trend — that Wisconsin is typically “behind the curve� when it comes to national politics.

“What you’re describing is that sort of old-fashioned Wisconsin nice,� he said. “In other words, people rising above partisanship, not particularly wanting to talk about it, certainly not wanting to create hostility and antagonism, and just generally being low key. I’ve been to Sauk County, and I get the sense that it’s a friendlier place than most of America.�

Toward Election Day

Prior to that afternoon at the Baraboo homecoming parade, Kaitlynne Roy, said she could not remember the last time she discussed politics.

She sees yard signs, reads campaign literature, watches the occasional news segment and keeps up with social media memes but has not consulted friends or family members about who she should vote for in November.

Roy said she is leaning toward Harris because she likes her messaging on issues of reproductive freedom and is excited by the idea of a woman president. But she doesn’t know enough about the candidate — who has only been at the top of the Democratic ticket for two months — to get fully onboard.

Competing for her attention are Trump’s promises to help low- and middle-class workers — particularly his pledge to eliminate taxes on tips and overtime pay.

“Trump has great concepts of plans,� she said, riffing on a comment the former president made in the September debate. “They sound wonderful. But it’s a waiting game. I’m waiting to see if he can turn these concepts into plans.�

Either way, she doesn’t plan to decide before election day. Come November, she said, she will weigh everything she’s heard from each candidate and vote for the one she thinks is most likely to stick to their word.

“But it’s just so hard to believe anything any of them say these days,� she said. “I’m torn.�